Be prepared for the scorching summer this year as the Indian meteorological department has forecasted “above normal” temperature across the country. Hill stations like Uttrakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh are expected to have 1-degree centigrade above their normal summer temperature.
The states that are in core heat zone (Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and Telangana ) are likely to have warmer temperature than expected.
The IMD weather model which is used to prepare the forecast has shown warm climate trends over previous months. According to IMD 2016 was the warmest year of the century, with the country 0.91 C warmer than the 1961-1990 average. The summer months of March-May last year were 1.36 C higher than the historical average, making it the second-warmest since 1901.
“We expect most of the warming to be in the northwest,” said K.J. Ramesh, Director-General IMD in a phone conversation with The Hindu. “I think the summer may be slightly milder than last year.” Last year’s temperature was high mainly due to warm winters, the warmest since 1901.
The weather agency blames global warming for the rise in temperature. “Studies indicate increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat waves over the country.”
“[This] can be attributed to increasing trends in the greenhouse gasses and the warming of the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans.”
IMD has already declared that an El Nino effect that will shape up in the middle of the year in the Pacific Ocean will affect the countries climate and things can go bad for the monsoon. But now they don’t want to raise any alarm hence denying the fact. “So far we don’t see a possible El Nino threat to the monsoon system,” said Mr. Ramesh. The agency is expected to give its first forecast of the June-September monsoon in April.